Strike from volatility and delta-with-premium

Speedy-yet-full-accuracy evaluation motivates this research     

To go or not to go,that is the question: Using social influence to reduce hot beverage cup waste

ABSTRACT

While most consumers today feel concerned by environmental issues, the consumption of hot beverage in disposable cups remains very important. In this study, we use influence strategies related to social norms to reduce these behaviors and get consumers to consume their hot beverage in reusable cups. 14373 orders were analyzed and demonstrate that normative messages can be effective to change consumer behavior toward a more responsible choices.     

Termination fees and bilaterally efficient merger contracts

We present a simple model of exchange in which mutual gains from trade motivate the use of termination fees in merger contracts. The inclusion of a termination fee permits bilaterally efficient merger contracts that make merger consummation more likely and result in higher merger payoffs for both the bidder and the target compared to contracts without termination fees. Introducing risk aversion for either the bidder or the target has negligible effects upon the preferred contracts, revealing that termination fees are not primarily a form of bidder insurance, although they do increase the probability that a merger is consummated. The model provides a rich collection of predictions, all of which are consistent with the empirical regularities reported to date.     

Stock market volatility forecasting: Do we need high-frequency data?

The general consensus in the volatility forecasting literature is that high-frequency volatility models outperform low-frequency volatility models. However, such a conclusion is reached when low-frequency volatility models are estimated from daily returns. Instead, we study this question considering daily, low-frequency volatility estimators based on open, high, low, and close daily prices. Our data sample consists of 18 stock market indices. We find that high-frequency volatility models tend to outperform low-frequency volatility models only for short-term forecasts. As the forecast horizon increases (up to one month), the difference in forecast accuracy becomes statistically indistinguishable for most market indices. To evaluate the practical implications of our results, we study a simple asset allocation problem. The results reveal that asset allocation based on high-frequency volatility model forecasts does not outperform asset allocation based on low-frequency volatility model forecasts.     

On Hoover’s Scale-Free Forecast Accuracy Metric MAD/MEAN

Asia-Pacific Financial Markets - In this study, we find that Hoover’s scale-free forecast accuracy metric MAD/MEAN is only recommended when the coefficient of variation (c.v.) is small. Using...     

Do health system reforms stand a chance?

While most major reforms of health systems fail, those that succeed are motivated by politicians' quest for reducing the health burden on their budget in response to a shift in voters' preferences away from public health. An Edgeworth box is used to depict their preferences, in addition to those of (potential) patients and health‐care providers. Politicians are found to severely constrain the area of mutual advantage, suggesting that only minor reforms are possible unless they promise to lower health‐care expenditure. An efficiency‐enhancing change that would enlarge the box and hence the area of mutual advantage would be to suppress the requirement imposed on health insurers to purchase domestically, rather than being free to directly import health‐care services and drugs.